Divisional Predictions

With the Major League Baseball season officially getting under way this past week in Japan I realize I must post my MLB baseball predictions. Some were a lot easier than others, but all-in-all I think that this season is going to continue the trend of fierce competition throughout the leagues.

AL
East
Division Winner: This was the toughest part of my entire evaluation because I had to pry my fandom away. The Boston offense is still probably in the top five in the Major Leagues, but the AL East is full of offense (except in Baltimore who will finish last BEHIND the Tampa Bay Rays). This divsion is going to come down to pitching. Many people are afraid to pick the Yankees for the division title because of their young, unproven talent on the pitching staff. The Red Sox are not much better off though. Jon Lester has not yet pitched 150 innings- for his career. His ERA is closer to five than to four. Clay Buchholz pitched a no-hitter last season before being sent back down to the minors while, ironically enough, Phil Hughes was in the middle of a no-hitter when he was pulled for a hamstring injury. Two unproven starters in the Boston rotation to match the Yankees' two unproven starters in their rotation. Tim Wakefield is no sure thing and while he had 17 wins last season, he also had 12 losses to go with a 4.76 ERA. Tim Wakefield could be compared to the Yankees' Mike Mussina (who admittedly had a worse season that Wakefield last season) who can dominate one day and be abyssmal the next. Josh Beckett has injury issues to start the season and so does Andy Pettitte. Chien Ming Wang won 19 games and Dice-K is sure to be better this season than last. Both the Yankees and the Sox have great back ends of the bullpen (Chamberlain and Rivera for the Yankees and Okajima and Papelbon for the Sox). They seem pretty matched so I'm comfortable going with my gut and saying the Yankees win the division in a tight race.

Central
Division Winner: The Detroit Tigers. That was one of the easy ones. What an offense! Dontrelle Willis, who will be AWFUL moving over from the National to the American League might still win 15 games for no other reason than the Tigers can slug with any team in the Major League. Not to mention the fact that the Tigers will feast upon Royals and Twins pitching for nearly 40 games.

West
Division Winner: While Seattle certainly boosted their rotation with the acquisition of Erik Bedard, there are just too many question marks everywhere else. Can Richie Sexson make a comeback, will king Felix be able to dominate the entire season? Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn certainly didn't impress last season either. I think the Mariners will be hitting the links while the Angels make a run at October baseball. Don't entirely discount the A's though. If Rich Harden stays healthy, he's a bonafide ace the only issue is that what stacks up behind him is largely an unknown commodity. They bear a close resemblance to the Arizona Diamondbacks of last season, a young, light hitting team that can really scrap together a win, but I don't think their pitching will hold up like the D-backs' did last season.

Wild Card:
Neither Cleveland nor Seattle have the depth to stack up to Boston or New York so assuming the Yankees win the East, the Red Sox will win the wild card.

NL
East
Division winner: While my last blog post said that Johan wasn't the savior to the Mets and that Mets fans shouldn't think that the division is won already because of his acquisition, I think when all is said and done, the Mets will win the NL East. This was one of the hard ones. I find it hard to see where the offense is going to come from with so many weak bats besides Wright and Reyes. Beltran is no guarantee as he has had trouble getting his legs underneath him and may prove to be delicate (as much of the roster has already shown). There front four seem like they'll be too good though to not project good things for the Mets. Pennants are won and lost with pitching and the Mets seem to have a good deal of it.

Central
Division winner: Cubs. Weakest division in baseball. The Brewers will challenge the Cubs, but I don't know if their pitching will outlast the Cubs'. As easy as this was at first glance though, keep in mind that it only took 85 wins to take the division last season. When a division is that weak, it can quickly become any body's for the taking if somebody gets on a freakish winning streak at the end of the season (see Colorado Rockies of 2007)

West
Division Winner: Simply the most exciting division race in baseball last season as even I, a New Yorker (who doesn't have cable tv mind you) tracked every pitch of those last few games when the Rockies made their remarkable one. I have to believe that two playoff teams will come out of this division just as last season, the only question is which two? I worry about Randy Johnson on the D-backs, but they have so many youngster waiting in the wings (including slugger Micah Owings) that it might not even be a factor. I feel sorry for Scott Proctor of the Dodgers; he finally escapes Joe Torre's abuse of being put out there every day and he gets followed across the country. The Dodgers have an aging pitching staff and their lights out closer, Takashi Saito, is having an ailment Joe Torre might remember from the Carl Pavano days, a strained buttock. I could go on and on, but I'm going to say the Rockies will win this division. Matt Holliday is the real deal and he will only get better along with clubhouse leader Troy Tulowitzki and the team as a whole is very well balanced. Their added confidence as NL champs should help as they go into the season.

Wild card: With the Arizona Diamondbacks fielding so many rookies last season, I think there might be a sophomore slump as the rest of the league figures out how to fool the young D-backs (who were outscored all of last season already). The Padres kept it interesting last season, but I think their late season collapse was a sign of things to come, and Trevor Hoffman is and overrated closer as it is. We all know the Giants will continue to falter (though I am calling for a spring back for the much maligned Barry Zito) so the only choice left is for the Dodgers to make it back to the playoffs after a one-year absence. Age could be their downfall, but if there's one thing we know about Torre, is that he likes veterans, so this could end up working out for them in the end.

Johan Not The Savior To Bring Miracles Back To Mets Fans

Carlos Beltran was being a bit overzealous when he said the Mets are the team to beat.

The New York Mets have acquired the best pitcher in baseball, and after a couple spring training games, have been left with one of the worst offenses in baseball. Due to examples set by the Arizona Diamond backs (they were outscored by their opponents for all of last season) and the Houston Astros, their deteriorating offense is not a death knell for their playoff hopes, but in one of the most competitive divisions in the National League, it certainly does not help.

While Johan Santana certainly gives them a chance every five days to win, a single starting pitcher does not make a playoff run. With Ryan Church and Brian Schnieder already not expected to contribute that much to the offense, their injuries make the offensive situation worse. According to Carlos Beltran, who is returning from an injury, he will have enough trouble playing defense behind the Mets’ new ace let alone hitting. "The problem in the outfield is the stop-and-go, when I have to stop and turn," Beltran said. "I can run, but I can't stop way out there. Also, when you run the bases, sometimes you've got to stop real quick, and that's a problem right now. I don't feel confident doing it."

One of the other Carloses, Delgado, has suffered a hip injury this spring which should make Mets fans a little less optimistic of a return to form by the aging first baseman. Pedro has yet to actually play in a spring game after today’s contest was cancelled due to rain and is also coming off of an injury plagued season. The only two legitimate studs in that rotation are Santana and Maine. So even if they followed the example of the D-Backs and Astros, they still don’t have the depth of starting pitching and backup in the bullpen that those two teams have/had.

I still think that Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies are the team to beat as they have a very well balanced attack that they can throw at any team in the National League. I can only say that if they get in a fight, as some of the players have insinuated, that the Phillies watch out- half of the Mets will be swinging walkers and crutches at them which could definitely cause season ending injuries.

Ray At The End of The Tunnel

My comeback team of the year has to be the Tampa Bay Rays this season. Though I don’t think comeback is the appropriate word because they’ve been in the basement of the A.L. East for the entirety of their existence. This season though I guarantee (providing that the players they have stay healthy) that they will at LEAST be fourth place in the division (the Orioles will take their spot in the cellar). For a few seasons the Yankees and Red Sox, the top two teams in the division, have struggled against these Rays. The reason was because of their obnoxious offense. Tampa Bay has a coveted combination of speed and power that has proven deadly against the juggernauts in the division. Last season, the Rays were in the top 10 of most offensive categories in the American League: eight place in runs, hits, batting average, and RBI, and fifth in both triples and OPS, while netting an impressive third place finish in homers. Those last three statistics speak volumes to their ability to get on, get over, and get home. Their offense has not been the issue- they have stayed in last place all this time, because they lacked any solid pitching. But New York baseball fans will remember the infamous trade that started the Rays on the path towards baseball redemption- Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir. The Rays managed to trade a pitcher aging before his time that had little to no bite on any of his pitches for what has turned out to be a bonifide AL ace. Last season Kazmir competed for the Cy Young award leading the Major Leagues with 239 strikeouts and an ERA under four (which, in the A.L. I would call a great ERA). Since then, the Rays have made several brilliant moves towards fielding a good, if not better than average, pitching staff. James Shields came up and pitched to a 12-8 record and an ERA under four with a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 5-1 in his first full season and this offseason acquired pitcher Matt Garza, who had a losing record last year for the slumping Twins, but also had an ERA under four (even though he played in the Central against somewhat weaker offenses, I would still call that impressive). The team also had some troubles in the bullpen, but over the course of the season a solid group of relievers rose to the surface. Led by a resurging Troy Percival (34g .85WHIP 1.80 ERA) the bullpen may still be a weakness, but if there’s one thing the Rays have lots of it’s youth on the farm. If the young starting pitchers can get them deep enough into games, the bullpen might not even be much of an issue. The Rays also went out and picked up free agent Cliff Floyd and Japanese veteran Akinori Iwamura if they both have a solid season the Rays have a shot to have a great deal of impact on the young team. Now I’m not saying they’re going to beat the Yankees or Red Sox and win the series this season, but they’re headed in the right direction that could put them in the playoffs a few years down the road.

This year's rookies

The Yankees chances this season depend upon a LOT of potential. If everyone meets their potential the Yankees could have a monster season. A rotation with all those youngsters is the big question though. There are rumors about the Yankees putting Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen to keep his innings down but still get a great deal of value out of his arm. Phil Hughes showed a great deal of poise in the playoffs after suffering an injury mid-season. Ian Kennedy pitched an impressive 19 innings for the Yanks, posting a 1.89 ERA. But, even if the kids pitch to their potential, with the innings limits put on them, can they pitch enough to help the Yankees? I think they can, but I have a feeling that new manager Joe Girardi, will not implement my little idea to keep the kids’ innings down and their performance up. I say, within the rotation you establish a mini-rotation. For instance, if your rotation has Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina in the top three spots, followed by the kids what you could do is slot the three kids into a rotation between starting and bullpen work. For instance, for five games you have Pettitte, Wang, Mussina, Hughes, and then Kennedy with Chamberlain in the bullpen. The next five games you keep the same rotation but put move Chamberlain into Hughes’ spot, move Hughes down a spot (giving him an extra day’s rest) and put Kennedy into the bullpen until he takes Chamberlain’s spot in the rotation. If you keep doing this you keep all the kids’ innings nice and low, but still pitch them enough to keep them fresh, while not affecting the schedule of the veterans. It’s a bit complicated, but I think it would get the most use out of the rookie phenoms and still give them enough rest to allow them to go the whole season.

Baseball As A Metaphor For Life

My beloved baseball is going through some growing pains, but I do believe it’s all for the better. The steroids scandal has given me plenty of grief, but for a baseball junkie like myself, I can actually find a positive angle in the fact that it has kept fresh stories about baseball on the back pages for me to read. But still, baseball is experiencing a renaissance and people are still going to great lengths to buy tickets. I myself spent a great deal of money to get a partial season ticket plan and even that was hard to come by. By my own personal estimation, it seems that the vast majority of teams are better than they were last season and will remain competitive through much of the 2008 campaign (I’ll give out predictions at the end of spring training).
As a Yankees fan, I suppose it’s easy for me to love baseball not only because of the fact my team always has a very good shot at winning a pennant, but because of the rich history and glory of the franchise. A true baseball fan lives and dies by their team. But that’s what separates a baseball fan from a fan of any other sport. Baseball is a metaphor for life itself.
To “have” a team in baseball is akin to having a nationality. I don’t have any relatives that date back to Revolutionary or even Civil War times in this country, but as an American I adopt that history as my own. Just as my immigrant grandmother who came to this country as a little girl speaks of American history as her own, anybody who puts on the uniform of a team is a part of that team’s history. To go from one team to another (especially by choice via free agency) can be considered an act of treason and can attract the ire of thousands, if not millions, of people.
Baseball has the longest schedule of any professional sport in this country, and quite possibly, the world. Baseball is played nearly every day for six months out of the year. Just as you or I go to work nearly every day, so to, do the baseball players. While football is tough and grueling and they are all certainly blue collar players, look at the story of Mickey Mantle; bandaged up like a mummy probably for 152 of the 162 games in a season, but he showed up and did his job nearly every day. While today players seem to be softer, the schedule is still grinding. Yes, the football players beat each other up all of the time, but they only go to work one day a week. Like many people in this country, including myself, work is seven days a week.
In baseball, as in life, there’s no tie game- (unless it’s the All-Star game a few years ago which outraged enough people for the very reason that it DID end in a tie) there are winners and there are losers. If a game is tied at the end of regulation, the rules don’t change. Why should rules change? In football it’s sudden death and the first team to score wins. In hockey there’s a shootout, but even then the game could end tied. In soccer, well sometimes I think they try to tie the games just so the hooligans don’t kill any more people than they did in regulation, but soccer games end tied up as well. There’s no joy in a tie. What was the purpose of the competition if everybody wins? In just about every other sport, there’s a clock that defines the length of time that the teams get to play. If your team is ahead, you want them to try and run out the clock to try and prevent the other team from coming back. You don’t have that luxury in baseball. In baseball you play until you win whether it takes eight hours, six minutes, and 25 innings (longest MLB game- White Sox vs. Brewers 1984) or if it takes you 51 minutes (shortest MLB game New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1919).
In a baseball game anybody can win no matter what the score. Down 11-0 in the second inning, the Cleveland Indians came back to defeat the Seattle Mariners 15-14 in 11 innings. Baseball is the American past time because it embodies the ideals of this country. Hard work and perseverance can defy any odds. If you don’t think it can happen, it’s probably happened on a baseball diamond. I have seen men fly over walls, I have seen men with broken bones hobble up to home plate and win World Series games, I have seen men run so fast they beat to home plate, a fast ball traveling 60 feet six inches at a speed of 90 miles per hour. I have seen small men rise to greatness and great men fall to nothingness. In an age where attention spans are growing shorter, I would find it hard to believe people are still pausing by the thousands to gather for hours at a time to watch grown men play a boy’s game- but it happens 162 times in 30 different ball parks across the country. Baseball is a metaphor for life, because neither can ever be predicted.

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I don't know how to characterize my reaction. Their entire run I was "quietly confident". That is to say that while I had a great deal of confidence in the Giants, I felt I had to respect the records of their opponents and how well they had played throughout the season. As far as the first round of the playoffs, I was openly confident about that. I really felt that while they may have had a worse record, they were a better team. I didn't think that just because Garcia had been a Giant killer in the past that it meant he would do that to this Giants team, but it wasn't out of the realm of possibility. I did however feel that the Giants and Bucs were both in similar situations where an "any given Sunday" mentality could benefit both teams. In the second round, I felt that if the Giants lost that it would be a much bigger disappointment for both myself and the Giants' players than losing to the Bucs, only because they had faced and lost twice already to the Cowboys. I was supremely confident from the moment I knew the Giants would play Dallas that they would win. Call it a hunch, but I did not think the Giants would lose three times to one team- if it wasn't their improved play down the stretch and into the playoffs that made me think that way, it was a strong belief in the idea that the Giants were "due". Then came Green Bay. That made me nervous. I truly believed these were two of the most evenly matched teams coming into this game. There were two things, however, that gave me some measure of confidence in the Giants.

1- It appeared to me that the Giants had been playing good "team" football for much of their season, but I felt it was extremely evident in the last two games of the regular season, and the first two games of the playoffs.
2- I truly believed that while the Giants were better than their record, I also believed Green Bay to be worse than their record. Where I felt the Packers had benefited from some good luck during the season, I felt the Giants had suffered some bad luck- lots of close games that they lost, lots of games that had an OBVIOUS turn on one play.

And during that game against Green Bay it appeared, at first glance at least, that those same fortunes would follow the two teams. When Tynes missed those two kicks, I felt that those were going to be those plays that, in the case of the really sloppy kick, was the bad luck (it was a relatively short kick that he makes all the time), and in the case of the close kick that almost made it, was one of those missed opportunities/turning points, that would lead to their downfall. But the fates have a way of having a sense of humor. The Packers who seemed to be prepared to dwarf the Giants (especially once they won the coin toss for over-time) would have some bad luck intertwined with that one big play that got away while lady luck would find itself cuddling right up to the very kicker she had scorned only one quarter ago. I sat watching with great dread as the Packers started with the ball, waiting for the strong arm of the legendary Bret Favre to launch missile to well within field goal range, if not into the end zone. Instead, Favre defied all of my expectations, and apparently the expectations of lady luck herself, went for a relatively short pass and reversed all of his previous good fortune. The Giants, who had not been forced into a single turn over for the entire playoffs and wouldn’t until the Superbowl, intercepted that short pass and were now on the offensive. I said aloud at this point, “The Giants CANNOT intercept Bret Favre and lose this game.” When they got stopped where they did, and I realized that a kick would have to be made from outside the 40 yard line, I groaned, but I was optimistic. Just like playing the Cowboys, I felt this team, these players were too hungry to lose- let alone three times in a row. I knew the stat given earlier in the broadcast- no opponent has ever kicked a field goal greater than 40 yards at Lambeau Field in the playoffs. But still, Tynes finally got that ball through the uprights- and I could breathe again. I knew now, however, that the Giants had quite a task ahead of them.

Before their opponent was even known, the Patriots were considered locks by many to win the Superbowl. I can’t blame them. The ’07-’08 Patriots were being tabbed as the greatest team to ever be assembled. Since I often think in baseball terms, they were rightly considered the “Murderers’ Row” of football. I continued to think, however, that these Patriots could end up with a very similar fate to the 2001 Seattle Mariners. An American League record 116 regular season wins behind them Aaron Sele was quoted as saying when they went to play the Yankees, "Today, (116 wins) means nothing… it’s all how you finish." Maybe being a Yankees fan has given me an heir of unending confidence, but I never forgot those words because he was right- the glory of their season, no matter how historic, would be somewhat irrelevant- literally trivial- if they didn’t win the World Series. Now, the Patriots, as an organization have more clout than do the Seattle Mariners, don’t get me wrong, but much of the same rationale applies here. Tom Brady, as of the day I write this story, if not THE greatest quarterback of all-time, one of them. However, all 18 of their wins in the regular season will play second fiddle to the fact that they went from being the true giants on the field to being defeated, quite soundly in some respects, by a wild-card Cinderella story. The Great Tom Brady was held to just seven points by the time the fourth quarter rolled around and by the end of the game had been sacked FIVE times. The New England Patriots out-sacked their opponents by better than a two to one ratio during the regular season (47-21). Through the entire postseason, the Patriots were out-sacked eight to five- with five of those sacks coming in one game: The Superbowl. The same Superbowl where the once lowly Eli Manning was never sacked, but more than that, personally eluded two big potential sacks; scrambling back to the line of scrimmage on the first, and becoming part of Superbowl and football lore for the rest of history on the second. If I have to explain this to you, I’m glad to see you made it out of your coma and/or were released from what I’m sure was a horrifying hostage situation, but I digress. With just over a minute to play the Giants have a third-and-five on their own 43(ish)yard line. Eli is barely in the pocket for two seconds before three Patriot linemen are pressuring him, each appearing to get a hand on him while the Giants attempt to push them back. It is Eli, however that sling-shots himself around and fires a shot down mid-field where David Tyree makes the greatest catch of his young career; pinning the football between his helmet and his right hand, going to the ground with a Patriot on top of him. Since this play, disgruntled Patriot fans have desperately tried to discredit the catch saying that Tyree never had control of the ball and that the ball itself touched the ground while he failed to maintain control, thus negating the catch. I have watched many replays since then, and the ball does touch the ground at one point. However, both of Tyree’s feet have touched the ground, and at that point, he has both hands on the ball and has clearly demonstrated control. To those same nay-sayers I contend that the defending Patriot (Harrison) committed an egregious foul after the catch by continuously wrestling with Tyree on the ground and swatting at it after the whistle was blown. I don’t know what the call is but I’m sure that has to be against some sort of rule. The touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress actually seemed somewhat anti-climactic, strangely enough, after all of the drama of The Catch, but it was what sealed the deal. Though I was extremely excited when Eli got the touchdown, I was still concerned about Brady. Shades of the two consecutive Hail-Mary passes to Randy Moss in their last meeting still managed to keep me riveted to the last (I believe) 35 seconds of the game(and he did try two pretty big throws on their last possession)- well 34 if you count the absurdity of Bill Belichick. What was that? At the time I was so excited and anxious that I was more confused than anything, but in hindsight I have to believe he was, in a sense, “icing” the Giants. He coached the New England Patriots to 18 straight wins and you mean to tell me he didn’t realize that there was time on the clock? He didn’t know that the clock was not running? Perhaps. I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but the evidence against him is too damning. If he was trying to reduce the amount of jubilation by getting in the way, I’d say it probably did a little bit. I know that where I was watching the game, we all stopped our dancing, hooting, and hollering to all ask each other what was going on. But, the ball was snapped and Eli took his knee, and the glory. Once again, I have too much baseball in my blood not to wonder/hope, that this reverses the damage done in 2004 by the Red Sox with their miracle. I believe it was Michael Strahan who said it before the game- either way history was going to be made. I’m just glad that it was my team that benefited.

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