Divisional Predictions

With the Major League Baseball season officially getting under way this past week in Japan I realize I must post my MLB baseball predictions. Some were a lot easier than others, but all-in-all I think that this season is going to continue the trend of fierce competition throughout the leagues.

AL
East
Division Winner: This was the toughest part of my entire evaluation because I had to pry my fandom away. The Boston offense is still probably in the top five in the Major Leagues, but the AL East is full of offense (except in Baltimore who will finish last BEHIND the Tampa Bay Rays). This divsion is going to come down to pitching. Many people are afraid to pick the Yankees for the division title because of their young, unproven talent on the pitching staff. The Red Sox are not much better off though. Jon Lester has not yet pitched 150 innings- for his career. His ERA is closer to five than to four. Clay Buchholz pitched a no-hitter last season before being sent back down to the minors while, ironically enough, Phil Hughes was in the middle of a no-hitter when he was pulled for a hamstring injury. Two unproven starters in the Boston rotation to match the Yankees' two unproven starters in their rotation. Tim Wakefield is no sure thing and while he had 17 wins last season, he also had 12 losses to go with a 4.76 ERA. Tim Wakefield could be compared to the Yankees' Mike Mussina (who admittedly had a worse season that Wakefield last season) who can dominate one day and be abyssmal the next. Josh Beckett has injury issues to start the season and so does Andy Pettitte. Chien Ming Wang won 19 games and Dice-K is sure to be better this season than last. Both the Yankees and the Sox have great back ends of the bullpen (Chamberlain and Rivera for the Yankees and Okajima and Papelbon for the Sox). They seem pretty matched so I'm comfortable going with my gut and saying the Yankees win the division in a tight race.

Central
Division Winner: The Detroit Tigers. That was one of the easy ones. What an offense! Dontrelle Willis, who will be AWFUL moving over from the National to the American League might still win 15 games for no other reason than the Tigers can slug with any team in the Major League. Not to mention the fact that the Tigers will feast upon Royals and Twins pitching for nearly 40 games.

West
Division Winner: While Seattle certainly boosted their rotation with the acquisition of Erik Bedard, there are just too many question marks everywhere else. Can Richie Sexson make a comeback, will king Felix be able to dominate the entire season? Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn certainly didn't impress last season either. I think the Mariners will be hitting the links while the Angels make a run at October baseball. Don't entirely discount the A's though. If Rich Harden stays healthy, he's a bonafide ace the only issue is that what stacks up behind him is largely an unknown commodity. They bear a close resemblance to the Arizona Diamondbacks of last season, a young, light hitting team that can really scrap together a win, but I don't think their pitching will hold up like the D-backs' did last season.

Wild Card:
Neither Cleveland nor Seattle have the depth to stack up to Boston or New York so assuming the Yankees win the East, the Red Sox will win the wild card.

NL
East
Division winner: While my last blog post said that Johan wasn't the savior to the Mets and that Mets fans shouldn't think that the division is won already because of his acquisition, I think when all is said and done, the Mets will win the NL East. This was one of the hard ones. I find it hard to see where the offense is going to come from with so many weak bats besides Wright and Reyes. Beltran is no guarantee as he has had trouble getting his legs underneath him and may prove to be delicate (as much of the roster has already shown). There front four seem like they'll be too good though to not project good things for the Mets. Pennants are won and lost with pitching and the Mets seem to have a good deal of it.

Central
Division winner: Cubs. Weakest division in baseball. The Brewers will challenge the Cubs, but I don't know if their pitching will outlast the Cubs'. As easy as this was at first glance though, keep in mind that it only took 85 wins to take the division last season. When a division is that weak, it can quickly become any body's for the taking if somebody gets on a freakish winning streak at the end of the season (see Colorado Rockies of 2007)

West
Division Winner: Simply the most exciting division race in baseball last season as even I, a New Yorker (who doesn't have cable tv mind you) tracked every pitch of those last few games when the Rockies made their remarkable one. I have to believe that two playoff teams will come out of this division just as last season, the only question is which two? I worry about Randy Johnson on the D-backs, but they have so many youngster waiting in the wings (including slugger Micah Owings) that it might not even be a factor. I feel sorry for Scott Proctor of the Dodgers; he finally escapes Joe Torre's abuse of being put out there every day and he gets followed across the country. The Dodgers have an aging pitching staff and their lights out closer, Takashi Saito, is having an ailment Joe Torre might remember from the Carl Pavano days, a strained buttock. I could go on and on, but I'm going to say the Rockies will win this division. Matt Holliday is the real deal and he will only get better along with clubhouse leader Troy Tulowitzki and the team as a whole is very well balanced. Their added confidence as NL champs should help as they go into the season.

Wild card: With the Arizona Diamondbacks fielding so many rookies last season, I think there might be a sophomore slump as the rest of the league figures out how to fool the young D-backs (who were outscored all of last season already). The Padres kept it interesting last season, but I think their late season collapse was a sign of things to come, and Trevor Hoffman is and overrated closer as it is. We all know the Giants will continue to falter (though I am calling for a spring back for the much maligned Barry Zito) so the only choice left is for the Dodgers to make it back to the playoffs after a one-year absence. Age could be their downfall, but if there's one thing we know about Torre, is that he likes veterans, so this could end up working out for them in the end.

Johan Not The Savior To Bring Miracles Back To Mets Fans

Carlos Beltran was being a bit overzealous when he said the Mets are the team to beat.

The New York Mets have acquired the best pitcher in baseball, and after a couple spring training games, have been left with one of the worst offenses in baseball. Due to examples set by the Arizona Diamond backs (they were outscored by their opponents for all of last season) and the Houston Astros, their deteriorating offense is not a death knell for their playoff hopes, but in one of the most competitive divisions in the National League, it certainly does not help.

While Johan Santana certainly gives them a chance every five days to win, a single starting pitcher does not make a playoff run. With Ryan Church and Brian Schnieder already not expected to contribute that much to the offense, their injuries make the offensive situation worse. According to Carlos Beltran, who is returning from an injury, he will have enough trouble playing defense behind the Mets’ new ace let alone hitting. "The problem in the outfield is the stop-and-go, when I have to stop and turn," Beltran said. "I can run, but I can't stop way out there. Also, when you run the bases, sometimes you've got to stop real quick, and that's a problem right now. I don't feel confident doing it."

One of the other Carloses, Delgado, has suffered a hip injury this spring which should make Mets fans a little less optimistic of a return to form by the aging first baseman. Pedro has yet to actually play in a spring game after today’s contest was cancelled due to rain and is also coming off of an injury plagued season. The only two legitimate studs in that rotation are Santana and Maine. So even if they followed the example of the D-Backs and Astros, they still don’t have the depth of starting pitching and backup in the bullpen that those two teams have/had.

I still think that Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies are the team to beat as they have a very well balanced attack that they can throw at any team in the National League. I can only say that if they get in a fight, as some of the players have insinuated, that the Phillies watch out- half of the Mets will be swinging walkers and crutches at them which could definitely cause season ending injuries.